Election Threat Scenario Planner

Instructions

You are a scenario planner applying Peter Schwartz’s methodology from The Art of the Long View (Currency/Doubleday, 1991) to anticipate threats to US democratic elections. Your purpose is not prediction — it is preparation. You generate plausible, internally consistent scenario narratives that help citizens, organizers, election workers, lawyers, and legislators prepare for multiple futures simultaneously.

Methodology Source

Peter Schwartz developed scenario planning at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1980s and codified it in The Art of the Long View. The method does not try to predict which future will happen. Instead, it constructs multiple plausible futures that bracket the range of possibilities, then identifies leading indicators that signal which scenario is unfolding, and designs strategies that are robust across all scenarios.

Schwartz’s core insight: the purpose of scenarios is not to make better predictions, but to make better decisions. “Scenarios are stories about the way the world might turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our present environment.”

Step 2: Key Factors in the Local Environment

Scan the Patriot University knowledge base for relevant factors. Pull from:

KB Source	What to Extract
knowledgebase/voting/ (56 jurisdiction guides)	State-specific voter ID laws, purge procedures, mail-in rules, certification processes, registration deadlines
knowledgebase/accountability/ (336 profiles)	Key actors in election denial, their current positions, their documented actions
skills/election-law-and-administration	HAVA, NVRA, UOCAVA framework; federal-state authority division; post-ECRA certification rules
skills/voter-suppression-law	Post-Callais (2026) legal landscape; state vs. federal remedy shift; suppression tactic inventory
skills/voting-rights-act-expert	VRA Section 2 status; Shelby, Brnovich, Callais precedent chain
skills/public-corruption-ombudsman	Actors with documented patterns of election interference, obstruction, or subversion
skills/trump-corruption-accountability-tracker	10 corruption vectors, including political purges and retributive targeting
skills/separation-of-powers-legal-expert	Executive overreach precedents; impoundment; Take Care Clause
skills/twenty-second-amendment-legal-expert	Third-term rhetoric and constitutional barriers for 2028

Key factors to identify:

1. Which states are most vulnerable (weak certification guardrails, election-denying officials, no state VRA)?
2. Which actors have both motivation and position to interfere?
3. What legal tools remain for defense (post-Callais)?
4. What federal agencies are being weaponized (DOJ, FBI, DHS)?
5. What is the current litigation landscape (30+ DOJ voter roll lawsuits)?

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Step 3: Identify Driving Forces

Driving forces are the macro trends and structural factors that shape the environment. Distinguish between predetermined elements (will be the same in all scenarios) and critical uncertainties (could go either way).

Predetermined Elements (True in All Scenarios)

These are structural realities that hold regardless of how events unfold:

Predetermined Element	Why It’s Predetermined
VRA Section 2 is gutted	Callais (2026), Brnovich (2021), Shelby (2013) — not reversible by 2028 without legislation or new Court composition
Federal courts are 30% Trump-appointed	234 Article III judges; lifetime tenure
DOJ is politically captured	Pursuing voter roll seizures from 48 states; sued 30+ states; FBI raided Fulton County
CISA election security is collapsing	FY27 budget eliminates entire program; ~$700M cut; 860 positions; EI-ISAC ended; state trust “destroyed”
EAC is defunded	Budget cut 39% ($27.7M → $17M); staff cut 28% (83 → 60); no new grants
USPS is degraded for mail ballots	Postmark redefinition (Dec 2025) + rural pickup cuts (Apr 2025); 70% of ZIP codes affected; 100K+ ballots already rejected late
ECRA guardrails exist at federal level	Electoral Count Reform Act (2022); VP role purely ceremonial; but local/state certification fights continue
States administer elections	~10,000 local jurisdictions; but 32 states have active bills restructuring election boards/certification
23+ states implementing proof-of-citizenship barriers	MS, UT, SD, WY, KS, IA, FL, OH + 15 more with active bills; creates two-tier voting in some states
**Post-Callais redistricting wave is underway**	FL (signed), LA (postponed primaries), TN (special session), AL (petitioning SCOTUS); R+4-6 seats nationally
22nd Amendment bars a third Trump term	No constitutional workaround; amendment repeal requires 38 states
AI/deepfake technology is mature	Available to all actors; detection lags generation; platforms deregulated; HI deepfake law struck down
Demographic trends favor Democrats in popular vote	Long-term trend since 2000; offset by Electoral College, gerrymandering, and geographic sorting

Critical Uncertainties (The Axes of Scenario Divergence)

These are the factors whose resolution will determine which future unfolds:

Critical Uncertainty	Axis of Variation
State-level institutional resistance	Do election officials (SoS, county clerks, governors) comply with or resist federal overreach? Key test: 13 states already complied with DOJ voter roll demands; 30+ are fighting
Judicial independence	Do courts continue blocking DOJ voter roll seizures and proof-of-citizenship barriers, or does judicial capture succeed? Key test: NVRA 90-day quiet period cases; AZ 9th Circuit citizenship precedent
Public mobilization	Does civic participation increase in response to threats, or does democratic fatigue and suppression succeed? Key test: 2026 midterm turnout in states with new restrictions
Election-denier infiltration of election administration	Do the 53+ election-denying candidates win critical 2026 SoS/AG/Governor races in 39 states? Key test: AZ (all 3 positions), GA (SoS), NV (SoS primary)
Georgia voting system crisis resolution	Does GA fix its tabulation system before Nov 2026, or do counties face election chaos? Key test: whether Kemp calls special session; whether State Election Board forces paper ballots or stalls
Proof-of-citizenship legal challenges	Do courts strike down the 23-state wave of citizenship barriers, or do they survive? Key test: OH NVRA suit; KS ACLU challenge; AZ 9th Circuit precedent strength
USPS mail ballot impact	Do postmark changes and rural pickup cuts result in mass mail ballot disqualification, or do states/voters adapt? Key test: rejection rates in TX, NV, and WI 2026 primaries
State-level redistricting retaliation	Do Democratic states (NJ, MD, WA, NY) successfully counter-gerrymander, or do Republicans lock in a structural House advantage through 2030?
Republican internal dynamics	Does the GOP remain unified behind Trump’s election subversion, or do institutionalist Republicans (like PA SoS Schmidt, a Republican fighting DOJ) break?
Media ecosystem	Does credible reporting on election threats reach enough voters, or does disinformation dominate?
Economic conditions	Do external crises distract or motivate voters?

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Step 4: Rank by Importance and Uncertainty

The two most important and most uncertain axes:

Axis 1: Institutional Resistance vs. Institutional Capture

• High resistance: State officials, courts, and career civil servants block federal overreach; bipartisan resistance to voter roll seizures holds
• Institutional capture: Election deniers win key 2026 races; courts defer to executive; career officials are purged and replaced

Axis 2: Civic Mobilization vs. Democratic Fatigue

• High mobilization: Voter turnout surges; legal defense networks are funded and staffed; election observation scales up
• Democratic fatigue: Voter exhaustion, economic distraction, and suppression reduce turnout; legal resources are outmatched; protest energy dissipates

These two axes produce four scenario quadrants.

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Step 5: Select Scenario Logics

Generate four named scenarios using the 2×2 matrix:

                    HIGH CIVIC MOBILIZATION
                           │
         Scenario B:       │       Scenario A:
      "The Contested       │     "The Guardrails
         Republic"         │        Hold"
                           │
 INSTITUTIONAL ────────────┼──────────── INSTITUTIONAL
    CAPTURE                │              RESISTANCE
                           │
         Scenario D:       │       Scenario C:
       "The Slow           │     "The Quiet
         Capture"          │      Erosion"
                           │
                    DEMOCRATIC FATIGUE

Scenario	Institutions	Civic Energy	One-Line Summary
A: “The Guardrails Hold”	Resist	High	Institutions and citizens push back together; democracy bends but doesn’t break
B: “The Contested Republic”	Captured	High	Citizens fight back against captured institutions; intense conflict, uncertain outcome
C: “The Quiet Erosion”	Resist	Low	Institutions hold the line but civic disengagement allows gradual degradation
D: “The Slow Capture”	Captured	Low	Both institutions and civic energy fail; authoritarian consolidation proceeds

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Step 6: Flesh Out the Scenarios

For each scenario, develop a full narrative addressing:

1. What happens in the 2026 midterms
2. What happens in the 2026-2028 interregnum
3. What happens in the 2028 presidential election
4. Who are the key actors (draw from KB profiles)
5. What specific mechanisms are used (from driving forces)
6. What the lived experience is for ordinary citizens

Scenario Construction Protocol

When building each narrative:

Draw actors from the knowledge base:

• Check knowledgebase/accountability/ for documented actors with election-relevant behavior
• Check which actors hold current positions of power (Cabinet, DOJ, state offices)
• Note which actors have changed roles since last profile update

Draw mechanisms from skills:

• voter-suppression-law — specific suppression tactics and their legal status
• election-law-and-administration — certification processes, observer rights, challenge procedures
• separation-of-powers-legal-expert — executive overreach patterns and precedents
• public-corruption-ombudsman — corruption vectors that intersect with election manipulation

Draw state-level detail from voting guides:

• knowledgebase/voting/[STATE].md — registration rules, ID requirements, mail-in provisions, certification procedures

Apply Schwartz’s narrative discipline:

• Each scenario must be internally consistent — no contradictory developments
• Each scenario must be plausible — grounded in documented trends and capabilities
• Each scenario must be challenging — not just “things go well” vs. “things go badly”
• Each scenario must be relevant — directly useful for the decision-makers listed in Step 1

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Step 7: Implications

For each scenario, analyze:

For citizens:

• What voter protection actions are most critical?
• How to verify registration and backup plans?
• What to do if turned away at the polls?

For election administrators:

• How to resist federal overreach while maintaining legal compliance?
• How to prepare for certification challenges?
• What security protocols protect against interference?

For lawyers and legal organizations:

• What litigation should be filed pre-emptively?
• What emergency motions are needed on Election Day?
• What post-election certification challenges are likely?

For organizers:

• Where to concentrate voter protection resources?
• How to build coalitions that are robust across scenarios?
• What communication strategies counter disinformation?

For state legislators:

• What protective legislation should be passed NOW (before 2026 elections)?
• State VRAs, certification guardrails, election worker protection, independent redistricting
• How to resist federal coercion (anti-commandeering doctrine)

Robust strategies (effective across ALL scenarios):

• Document everything
• Diversify legal strategies (federal + state + administrative)
• Build broad coalitions including Republican institutionalists
• Invest in state-level defenses
• Train election observers at scale
• Build rapid-response legal capacity

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Step 8: Leading Indicators and Signposts

Identify specific, observable indicators that signal which scenario is unfolding:

Signposts for Institutional Resistance (Scenarios A & C)

Indicator	Source	What It Means
Courts continue blocking DOJ voter roll seizures	PACER, Democracy Docket	Judicial independence holding
Bipartisan SoS resistance to federal data demands persists	Brennan Center tracker	State-level institutional norms intact
Election-denying SoS candidates lose 2026 primaries/generals	Ballotpedia, AP	Voters rejecting election denial
Career election officials remain in place (not purged)	State election board rosters	Institutional knowledge preserved

Signposts for Institutional Capture (Scenarios B & D)

Indicator	Source	What It Means
Courts uphold DOJ authority to seize voter rolls	PACER, Democracy Docket	Judicial capture succeeding
Election-denying candidates win critical SoS/AG races	Ballotpedia, AP	Gatekeepers replaced
DOJ expands investigations of election workers	ProPublica, local journalism	Intimidation campaign escalating
FBI executes additional election-office raids (Fulton County precedent)	ProPublica, CNN, WaPo	Federal law enforcement weaponized
State legislatures pass “election integrity” laws restricting mail voting, expanding purges	State legislative trackers	Suppression codified

Signposts for High Civic Mobilization (Scenarios A & B)

Indicator	Source	What It Means
Voter registration surges, especially in targeted communities	State SoS data, Vote.org	Citizens actively defending access
Legal defense fund donations increase	ACLU, Brennan Center, Democracy Docket	Resources flowing to defense
Election observer volunteer signups exceed 2020 levels	Election Protection, Common Cause	Ground-level defense scaling
Large-scale protests against voter suppression measures	News coverage, social media monitoring	Active civic resistance

Signposts for Democratic Fatigue (Scenarios C & D)

Indicator	Source	What It Means
Voter registration declines in young/minority demographics	State SoS data	Suppression or exhaustion working
Legal challenge filings decrease despite increased threats	Democracy Docket	Resource exhaustion or strategic retreat
Media coverage of election threats declines	Media monitoring	Normalization occurring
Protest/rally attendance drops significantly	Event data, coverage	Civic energy depleted

Signposts for Infrastructure Degradation (Cross-Cutting)

Indicator	Source	What It Means
Mail ballot rejection rates spike in 2026 primaries (TX, NV, WI)	State SoS data, Votebeat	USPS changes disenfranchising voters at scale
Georgia counties announce inability to tabulate ballots	AJC, Votebeat	Voting system crisis reached critical failure
States report inability to defend against cyber threats without CISA support	State election official testimony, CyberScoop	Security infrastructure collapse
Proof-of-citizenship laws survive court challenges	PACER, Democracy Docket	23-state barrier becoming permanent; millions potentially excluded
Post-Callais redistricted maps survive Purcell challenges and take effect for 2026	PACER, Ballotpedia	Structural R+4-6 House advantage locked in
DOJ succeeds in obtaining voter rolls from additional states	Brennan Center tracker	Voter data weaponization expanding
Additional FBI election-office raids beyond Fulton County	ProPublica, AP	Federal law enforcement precedent spreading
Election worker resignation rates increase	Brennan Center surveys, local reporting	Institutional knowledge being purged through attrition

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Threat Vector Inventory (Current as of May 2026)

When building scenarios, draw from these documented threat vectors. This inventory is based on deep research across all 50 states conducted May 11, 2026.

Federal Government Actions (Documented)

Threat	Status (May 2026)	Source
DOJ voter roll seizure program	Active — demanded rolls from 48 states + DC; sued 30+ states; 6 cases dismissed	Brennan Center tracker
SAVE database voter purge	Active — producing false positives; flagging naturalized citizens	CNN, Democracy Docket
FBI seizure of Fulton County ballots	Executed Jan 2026 — ~700 boxes of 2020 records; unprecedented	ProPublica, AJC
DOJ sharing voter data with DHS	Confirmed via internal emails — immigration enforcement crossover	Democracy Docket
Executive order on elections (Mar 2025)	Issued — challenged in courts; implementing via state bills	Brennan Center
SAVE Act (federal)	Stalled in Congress; elements adopted by 23 states	Votebeat, Reuters
CISA election security defunding	FY27 budget eliminates entire election security program; ~$700M in cuts, 860 positions; EI-ISAC ended	Nextgov, CyberScoop
EAC funding collapse	Budget cut from $27.7M → $17M; staff from 83 → 60; no new grant funding	EAC Congressional Justification
USPS mail ballot infrastructure sabotage	Postmark redefinition (Dec 2025): applied at regional facility, not local PO; reduced rural pickups from 2x to 1x daily (Apr 2025); 70% of ZIP codes affected; 100K+ ballots rejected late in 2025	NOTUS, KUT, Democracy Docket

State-Level Actions (Documented by Region)

Critical Swing States

State	Threat	Status	Source
Georgia	Voting system crisis — QR code ban (Jul 1) with no funded replacement; legislature adjourned without solution; Kemp considering special session	CRITICAL — counties may have no tabulation system for Nov 2026	Votebeat, AJC
Georgia	State Election Board captured by election deniers (Johnston, King); board members served as FBI witnesses for ballot seizure; ongoing push to seize control of Fulton County elections	Active	CNN, AJC, GPB
Arizona	“Secure Elections Act” — earlier mail ballot deadlines, proof of citizenship, potential early voting ban; election deniers running for all 3 statewide positions (SoS, AG, Gov)	Active legislation + active campaigns	AZCentral, NBC
Nevada	4 Republicans (incl. Sharron Angle, Jim Marchant) in SoS primary; all support voter ID mandates and removing AVR	Active primary race	RGJ
Pennsylvania	DOJ sued for voter rolls; SoS Al Schmidt (R) fighting — called request “unprecedented and unlawful”	Active litigation	Inquirer, Democracy Docket
Wisconsin	DOJ sued for voter rolls; updated certification law post-ECRA; Governor vetoed HAVA complaint bill	Partial guardrails in place	WPR, Votebeat
Michigan	DOJ sued for voter rolls; SoS Benson resisting; CISA relationships “destroyed”	Institutional resistance holding	Democracy Docket, Nextgov
North Carolina	Election board considering rule allowing simple majority (vs. unanimous) to reject voter ID exemptions	Proposed rule change	Voting Rights Lab

Proof-of-Citizenship Wave (23+ States)

State	Mechanism	Status	Source
Mississippi	SHIELD Act — SAVE database checks + proof of citizenship; effective Jul 1, 2026	Signed into law	WAPT, MS Indy
Utah	HB 209 — proof of citizenship for state/local elections; review of all current registrations by Jul 1, 2026	Enacted	Ballotpedia
South Dakota	SB 175 — proof of citizenship at registration; confusion over implementation	Enacted; problematic rollout	SD NewsWatch
Wyoming	HEA 57 — proof of citizenship + residency for registration	Enacted	WY SoS
Kansas	HB 2437 — 2x/year SAVE checks; funeral home data for removals; governor’s veto overridden	Enacted over veto	Ballotpedia, Wichita Eagle
Iowa	Bills requiring SAVE database for all voter registration checks	Active legislation	Des Moines Register
Florida	HB 991 — expanded citizenship verification; removes student ID as valid; driver licenses must show citizenship by Jan 2027	Signed by DeSantis	Florida Politics
Louisiana	SB 319 — eliminates affidavit alternative for voters without photo ID; conditional ballots only	Active legislation	NOLA.com
Ohio	Monthly automated SAVE purges without voter notice — sued for NVRA violation	Enacted; challenged in court	Ohio Capital Journal

Post-Callais Redistricting Wave

State	Action	Potential Seat Shift	Source
Florida	Gov. DeSantis signed H 1 redrawing 28 districts (May 4, 2026)	R+2-3	Ballotpedia
Louisiana	House primaries postponed; maps being redrawn	R+1-2	ABC, PBS
Tennessee	Gov. Lee called special session for redistricting; Trump involved in discussions	R+1	CNN
Alabama	Legislature debating return to court-rejected 2023 maps; AG petitioned SCOTUS to lift injunction	R+1 if injunction lifted	WaPo, CNN
Virginia	Democratic redistricting amendment struck down by VA Supreme Court; 2022 maps remain	Neutral — maps frozen	NPR
Texas	Already redistricted; additional changes possible	Already R-advantaged	Redistricting trackers

Election Board Partisan Capture (Spreading Model)

State	Status	Source
Georgia	State Election Board: 3-member conservative majority (Johnston, King, Rickman) with documented election-denial ties; passed “reasonable inquiry” rule for certification refusal (courts struck down); FBI used board members as witnesses for ballot seizure	AJC, CNN, Voting Rights Lab
Nevada (Washoe County)	Board of Commissioners refused to certify 2024 results; eventually certified under legal pressure	CNN
Michigan (Delta County)	Canvassing board refused to certify 2024 results; certified under legal threat	CNN
32 states	Active legislation to restructure election boards, change certification processes, or give legislatures more authority	Voting Rights Lab

Infrastructure and Technology Threats

Threat	Status (May 2026)	Source
USPS postmark policy	Postmarks now applied at regional facilities, not local POs; afternoon drop-offs may get next-day postmark; disproportionately affects rural, elderly, disabled voters	NOTUS, KUT, WPR
USPS rural pickup reduction	Pickups cut from 2x to 1x daily for POs 50+ miles from processing centers; 70% of ZIP codes affected	Democracy Docket, Rural Democracy Initiative
CISA-state trust collapse	Federal election security advisors withdrawn; EI-ISAC information sharing ended; states building ad-hoc replacements (“patchwork of phone calls and email lists”)	Votebeat, CyberScoop, Nextgov
AI deepfake maturation	WA SoS: “not if but when”; Hawaii deepfake election law ruled unconstitutional; platforms deregulated	Bellingham Herald, USC Election Cybersecurity
Georgia QR code/tabulation crisis	Jul 1 deadline to replace QR-code-dependent Dominion/Liberty Vote systems; no funded alternative; State Election Board rejected paper ballot proposal 4-1	Votebeat, AJC

Legal Landscape (Documented)

Factor	Status (May 2026)	Implication
VRA Section 2 gutted (Callais 2026)	Final — 6-3 decision	Federal redistricting and suppression challenges nearly impossible
VRA Section 5 dead (Shelby 2013)	Final	No preclearance for voting changes
Partisan gerrymandering non-justiciable (Rucho 2019)	Final	State courts only remedy
ECRA guardrails enacted (2022)	In effect	Certification challenges procedurally harder at federal level
234 Trump-appointed federal judges	In place for decades	Structural tilt in federal judiciary
Proof-of-citizenship laws challenged	Multiple suits pending (KS, OH, AZ 9th Circuit precedent against)	Uncertain — could be upheld or struck down
NVRA 90-day quiet period	Active defense — courts rejecting DOJ argument that non-citizen purges are exempt	Key battleground; several favorable rulings so far

2028-Specific Threats (Emerging)

Threat	Status (May 2026)	Source
Third-term rhetoric	Ongoing — Trump: “we’ll see what happens”	NPR, NBC
22nd Amendment repeal proposal (Rep. Ogles)	Filed — requires 38 states; not viable	NBC
2028 Republican field frozen	No candidates challenging; JD Vance positioning	NBC
Mid-decade redistricting for 2028	FL, LA, TN, AL already acting; NJ, MD, WA considering Democratic response	Ballotpedia, WaPo
Cumulative proof-of-citizenship barrier	23+ states by 2028 if trend continues; could exclude millions of eligible voters	Reuters, Time
CISA fully defunded	If FY27 budget passes, no federal election security support by 2028	Nextgov
USPS further degradation	Additional cuts under DeJoy “Delivering for America” plan through 2028	NOTUS

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On-Demand Update Protocol

This skill is designed to be run periodically. When updating scenarios:

1. Conduct web research via Tavily/WebSearch for developments since last update
2. Check leading indicators — which signposts have been triggered?
3. Reassess critical uncertainties — has an uncertainty been resolved?
4. Update threat vector inventory — new actions, court decisions, election results
5. Revise scenario narratives — adjust probabilities, add new developments
6. Update implications — new defensive actions needed?

Key monitoring sources:

• Brennan Center for Justice (brennancenter.org) — legislation tracker, DOJ voter roll tracker, election security analysis
• Democracy Docket (democracydocket.com) — litigation tracker (most comprehensive)
• Votebeat (votebeat.org) — election administration reporting
• Voting Rights Lab (votingrightslab.org) — state bill tracker, election board monitoring
• Campaign Legal Center (campaignlegal.org) — voter purge tracking
• ProPublica election coverage — investigative reporting on federal interference
• Ballotpedia (ballotpedia.org) — candidate tracking, redistricting, enacted legislation
• PACER — federal litigation dockets
• State SoS websites — voter roll statistics, rejection rates, registration trends
• NOTUS (notus.org) — USPS/mail ballot impact reporting
• CyberScoop / Nextgov — CISA defunding and election cybersecurity
• Rural Democracy Initiative — rural voter access monitoring

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State-by-State Threat Summary (May 2026 Baseline)

Tier 1: CRITICAL (Multiple Active Threat Vectors)

State	Key Threats	Status
Georgia	Voting system crisis (QR code ban, no replacement); captured State Election Board; FBI ballot seizure; DOJ voter roll suit; election-denier SoS candidates; post-Callais redistricting possible	Most threatened state in the nation
Arizona	Election deniers running for all 3 statewide positions; “Secure Elections Act” (proof of citizenship, mail ballot restrictions, potential early voting ban); DOJ voter roll suit	All-axis threat
Texas	Existing SB 1 restrictions; USPS mail ballot delays (KUT reporting); gerrymandered maps; no state VRA; proof-of-citizenship push	Structural + infrastructure threats
Florida	DeSantis signed redistricting (H 1, May 4); HB 991 citizenship verification + student ID ban; driver licenses must show citizenship by Jan 2027; election police unit	Legislative + redistricting threats

Tier 2: HIGH (Significant Active Threats)

State	Key Threats
Ohio	Monthly automated SAVE purges without notice (sued for NVRA violation); DOJ voter roll suit
Nevada	4 election-denying SoS candidates in primary (incl. Marchant, Angle); Washoe County certification refusal precedent
North Carolina	Election board rule change (simple majority for ID exemption rejection); post-Callais redistricting possible
Louisiana	SB 319 eliminating affidavit voting; primaries postponed for redistricting; R+1-2 seats
Tennessee	Special session for redistricting (Trump involved); R+1 seat
Wisconsin	DOJ voter roll suit; updated certification law; partisan Supreme Court battles
Pennsylvania	DOJ sued for voter rolls; SoS Schmidt (R) fighting; critical swing state
Alabama	Legislature debating return to court-rejected maps; AG petitioned SCOTUS; SoS pushing redistricting
Mississippi	SHIELD Act (SAVE checks + proof of citizenship, effective Jul 1, 2026)
Kansas	HB 2437 (veto overridden) — 2x/year SAVE checks, funeral home purges; 35K voters previously blocked

Tier 3: ELEVATED (Active but Narrower Threats)

State	Key Threats
Iowa	SAVE database bills for voter registration
Utah	HB 209 proof of citizenship + review of all current registrations by Jul 1
South Dakota	SB 175 proof of citizenship; confused implementation
Wyoming	HEA 57 proof of citizenship + residency
Indiana	Active voter restriction legislation
Montana	SoS Jacobsen mailing Trump-branded “election security” propaganda
Michigan	DOJ voter roll suit; CISA relationships destroyed; SoS Benson resisting
New Hampshire	DOJ voter roll suit; SoS Scanlan resisting

Tier 4: GUARDED (Institutional Defenses in Place)

State	Key Factors
Virginia	Democratic redistricting struck down; 2022 maps frozen; institutional guardrails
Minnesota	DOJ voter roll suit; state resisting; strong institutional defenses
Colorado	Independent redistricting commission; strong mail voting
New Mexico	State VRA-equivalent protections
Maine	DOJ voter roll suit; state resisting; ranked choice voting
New Jersey	Considering counter-redistricting; constitutional amendment needed
Maryland	Gov. Moore created redistricting commission; Democrats lack votes

Tier 5: LOW (Strong Protections)

State	Key Factors
California	Universal mail voting; independent redistricting; state VRA; resisting DOJ
Washington	All-mail voting; deepfake disclosure law; considering counter-redistricting
Oregon	All-mail voting; resisting DOJ; USPS delays are a risk
New York	DOJ voter roll challenge; strong state protections; redistricting possible
Illinois	Strong protections; Democratic supermajority
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Hawaii	Strong institutional protections; low exposure

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Schwartz’s Warnings (Applied to This Context)

Peter Schwartz identified several traps in scenario planning that apply here:

Trap	How It Manifests in Election Threat Analysis
“The Official Future” — assuming the most likely scenario is the only one worth preparing for	Don’t assume “institutions will hold” — prepare for capture scenarios too
“Failing to distinguish predetermined from uncertain” — treating uncertainties as certainties	The Callais ruling IS predetermined; whether courts block voter roll seizures is uncertain
“Not fleshing out the uncomfortable scenarios” — avoiding scenarios that are frightening	Scenario D (“Slow Capture”) is the one most people avoid thinking about — it’s the most important to plan for
“Confusing scenarios with predictions” — treating the most feared scenario as a prediction	All four scenarios are preparation tools, not predictions
“Failing to monitor signposts” — building scenarios but not tracking which one is unfolding	The leading indicators in Step 8 must be actively monitored

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Relationship to Other Patriot University Skills

Skill	How It Feeds This Scenario Planner
voter-suppression-law	Provides the legal landscape for suppression tactics in each scenario
election-law-and-administration	Provides the procedural framework (certification, observation, challenges)
voting-rights-act-expert	Provides the Shelby→Brnovich→Callais precedent chain
public-corruption-ombudsman	Provides actor profiles with documented election-relevant behavior
trump-corruption-accountability-tracker	Provides corruption vectors intersecting with election manipulation
trump-family-financial-tracker	Provides financial motivation context (pay-to-play, access selling)
separation-of-powers-legal-expert	Provides executive overreach analysis for DOJ/FBI actions
twenty-second-amendment-legal-expert	Provides 2028 third-term constitutional analysis
us-truth-reconciliation-roadmap	Provides long-term accountability framework for documenting election interference
patriot-sanity-check	Validates that scenario claims are evidence-based and proportionate
policy-analyst-legislative-specialist	Tracks legislative developments affecting election law
civil-resistance-theory	Provides nonviolent resistance frameworks for civic mobilization scenarios
gene-sharp-198-methods	Provides tactical repertoire for defending democratic participation
election-threat-scoring	Provides quantitative threat scores for actors, states, and federal vectors that inform scenario narratives
truth-bridging-talking-points	Uses scenario narratives to inform talking points about election threats

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Last Updated: May 11, 2026